2020-06-30: GBPUSD

At the end we had a good day!

Expectation: because of the last three down moves....today we expected a first push up.

Tomorrow around 08:00 price meandered towards the sma89 but did not cross it....that would imply we possibly first must cross it before we can see the new direction.

So our first possibility around 11:00 we saw a sort of morning star. the entry candle give us a small 25% reverse. So yes actually this was a valid entry

SL: just below last low

TP: first reversing formation or around sma89 and if push was strong even higher

But because the last touches where sniffing on the sma89 I had not appetite in this trade....

If I would took this it turned out to be a break even trade....

At 13:00 the next possibility was there....but the entry candle did not gave us the 25%

Around 15:00 I went nervous....afraid to miss an incoming downtrade....because price wasn't really moving to the upside.... So at that time I tried to catch something....which result in 3 losing trades

at 15:45 price went above the sma21 again. At that time it went more clear price was indeed moving to the upside...as already expected in the morning!

At the end the market-rhythm saved me.....!

Again I traded somewhat without a real direction and let me catch be the market....

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2020-06-29: GBPUSD

Today I'm satisfied with my results....3 trades (1 real-winner)

Expectation:

Last Friday we saw a second push down. From that perspective we could expect a third push down.

Setup 1:

After the Asian-session price retraced to the sma89...did broke it and was already halve-way the ranging area. At 10:00 we see a dark cloud cover formation. The entry-candle also traced for more then 25%.

TP: just above high of this formation

SL: retracement formation, sma89 or even further if no retracement formation is developing.

This trade was in potential around the 54pips

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Well I saw the retracement and at that moment I wanted to stick to the market-rhythm rule if in ranging area then price. Be careful it can b a rough right. But in this case I did not realized that we had some positive points for a bearish setup!

1) we expect a down-move

2) we have a strong dark-cloud cover

3) it's the second try for reversing

That together is making this trade very valid.....

Unfortunately I saw realized it 30min to late...which made me in a mode for getting those "lost" pips....

I know a bad habit...and I try to work on it....see my last post. Anyway if you see my next trading I did stick to the strategy..but did not followed the Plan that well.... A point to work on!!

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A terrible setup here I did not really followed the plan....

around 13:00/13:30 I see again a dark-cloud cover, just broke the sm8...and hope it would work. ell just a retracement around the sma8 doesn't say anything.... and yes it wasn't a right one... market went a little higher for producing the next dark-cloud cover.... also not ready for a trade. Anyway I noticed it...and moved myself back to the plan and closed the trade....

a lost of -9pips....

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learning i difficult.... after I closed my last trade with a lost.... Price is reversing and yes again I'm trapped.... not following the plan.

I let the trade run because I hope price is reversing...yes a little but then it is around my opening price. So I decided to close the trade with a small small win

a win of 3pips....

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Setup2:

Then price retraced towards the 21sma and retraced....finally a setup

I started the tray a little to early....but price indeed reversed and finally I could make some pips

SL just above engulfing pattern

TP retracement candle, 161,8fib level, ADR-level

Finally this trade made me 60pips

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Actually also this setup is not a real trade because the entry-candle did not retraced by 25%

Setup3:

Then there is around 16:30 again a setup. Price reached sma21 and retraced with an engulfing formation. also here the entry candle did not retraced for 25%

So actually we have 3 setups here....and only the first on was following my plan/strategy worth a trade

Maybe setup2 and 3 were both real trades but only because of the bearish pressure and engulfing candles......

At the end I'm satisfied today. Just because I noticed that I did not follow the plan...and at the end I also closed trades if they went into the wrong direction...instead of only hoping!

I learned something today ;)

Week 26: posible trades if I did followed my Tradingplan

What are we expecting at the first day of the week.... looking to week 25 we see a first, second and third push down. So following our strategy we can expect on Monday a first push UP.

We can see the Market is in Rhythm that means price is coming from the sma89- tried to test it before continuing. If to far away from the ema8-21 it tends to come back to the ema8-21. We can see this behavior so the market is indeed in Rhythm.

Monday 22 June

So we expecting a First Push UP....

In the morning 08:00 we see during the night the price went above the ema21 (that means be careful price could be move back towards the sma89...) and indeed it went back (this time without a test of the ema21)

Setup 1:

We search for a first push up so we searching for bullish candle formations.

at 09:30 we see then a Piercing Pattern just above the sma89...this could be a possibility....

BUT BE WARNED:

Price is between sma89 and sma200 that means it's a ranging area....

Price can be choppy inhere!

Then we must wait so that the price reversed fur just 25% of the last close and we have an entry!

SL is just below the low of the piercing pattern

TP could be around the sma200 (the and of the ranging area, between sma89 and sma200) or just waiting until the market shows us a bearish candle formation

In this case we could close the trade after the Doji followed by the bearish engulfing pattern

This trade was in potential around the 40pips

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Setup 2:

Market did not manage to go into Rhythm. Instead it went back into the ranging area (sma89-200)

at 15:15 it went out the range...is trying to test it ones more and at 16:00 we have again a Piercing Pattern at the right spot! so this could be a second possibility for today....

Then we must wait for a retrace for at least 25%...and that never happened...

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Setup 3:

at 16:00 we see a Morning Star formation.... is this the next possibility?

The next candle reversed indeed for 25% so this was an entry-point....

Sl is just below the low of the candle (30pips)

TP is around the ema356 (around 30pips) or 161,8Fib around 1,2467 (last high...low move)

Because of the stronger push up I guess I would had token this trade

This trade was in potential around the 18pips

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This day would had given me 58pips profit

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Tuesday 23 Juni

Yesterday we had a first push up ....so today we possibly can expect a second push up

During the night price came below the sma21...and rallied back... so normally we can expect a cross of the sma89 (Market Rhythm rule)

Setup 4:

At 09:30 price crossed below the sma89 and we see here a morning star formation. That could mean price can start a new rhythm here. But it's not that sure....normally if price comes from the sma89...it want test it ones more before it goes into the Rhythm.

the next candle reversed enough...so we have also an entry here

SL just below the low of the morning star

TP first revers candle or fib161,8 or around ADR

This trade was in potential around the 41 pips

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This day would had given me 41pips profit

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Wednesday 24 Juni

We can expect a third push up

In the morning we can see price went below the ema8/21 so firstly we can expect a move back between the sma89/200 before direction reveals....

Setup 5 / Setup 6

Price touches the sma200...we see a morning star, we see a piercing pattern...but both without retracing entry candle....so both setups are not valid! Besides that I do not think there is enough room to the sma200 for a good R:R

Setup 7

price went below the sma200 and with that a push up for to day is canceled.

At 16:30 we see an evening star.... followed by a 25% reversal so this is the next trade...

SL just above high of evening start

TP at first reversal formation then around ADR or Pivot r fib 161.8 (1,2420)

This trade was in potential around the 57 pips

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ps: at 14:30 could be interpreted as a valid long...but sma8/21 still were below the sma89 and price went of from sma89 but then it normally test the sma89 before continuing his direction. If taken it would be a risky trade!....if token it was a lost of 15pips (just below formation and in this case even below sma89!)

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This day would had given me 57pips profit

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Thursday 25 Juni

Yesterday turned out as a first push down so today we expect a second push down

In the morning we saw the price cam above the sma8-21 that would indicate a possible push upwards to the sma89.

Setup 8

at 10:00 we saw a bullish engulfing pattern followed by a good entry candle (> 25% retracement)

SL just below pattern

TP look for reversal formation or just below ema256

This trade was in potential around the 25 to 47 pips (depending on the TP strategy)

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Then price tried to break the sm89 and finally between 15:45 and 16:30 there were some possible setups but they are a bit questionable. Because the sma8-21 are still within the range sma89-200 and price is already below....

Setup 9

the setup for 15:45 is I think to shy because of the above

Setup 10

the setup for 16:30 was I think a good one.... sma8-21 came just below sma89

But the entry candle did not give us a retracement of 25%

But I think setup 9 and 10 are both examples where I can make a disaster

-just fire to early....to late and even choose the wrong direction and losing my tradingplan/strategy

-a typical ranging day....

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This day would had given me 25pips OR 47pips profit

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Friday 26 Juni

The last day turned out in a ranging day... so again we can expect a second push down

In the morning we see price came between the sma89 and sma200 (ranging area) So now we need to watch for bearish formation candles just below the sma89 (if our expectation is correct)

Setup 11

jus before 10:00 we see price crosses the sma89, came back for a short test and at 10:00 we see our bearish engulfing pattern. The entry candle also went back for 25% and so our trade is on.

also sma8-21 were just crossing the sma89

SL: just above engulfing pattern

TP: reversal pattern or ADR or pivot point or 161,8% fib

Unfortunately this trade was retracing direct and we had just 0 or 1 pip

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Setup 12

Price came back tot the sma21, did not break it and at 11:15 reversed with a bearish engulfing pattern. The entry candle did not give us a retracement of 25% so that is why we did not got in this trade

Setup 13

at 12:30 again price went back towards the sma21, did not break it and gave as a bearish engulfing pattern. The entry candle gave us 25% retracement and so we could get into this trade

SL just above the bearish engulfing pattern

TP reversal pattern, ADR or pivot point or 161,8% fib

already 2 candles later we had a reversal pattern end need a force close of this trade

This trade was in potential around the 7 pips

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The above setup and trade is a dangerous one for me.... because the whole day we see a fading GBPUSD..., price below sma89, is always hold at sma21...so we can expect here a stronger downtrend.

just in this sort of moments it is very important(!) to stick to your rules....

look what would happened if we did not closed the trade at 13:15....

price went higher for 19pips, it breaks the sma8 and the sma21...so maybe we can also break the sma89

in those 3 or 4 candles.....we can lose ourselves....and just try to pick the right direction....without a strategy, only with hope.... and before you really now...you can lose in such situations all your collected pips from the week. So please be careful and just stick to your plan!!

Yes indeed...for me it's easy to say but oh so difficult to do in the real life!

Setup 14 and 15

The the last setups of the week..

Price came down...looks in rhythm and at 14:15 and 15:45 we see a evening star an a bearish engulfing pattern.

Both entry candles entry-candle did not gave us a 25% retracement so unfortunately we did not had here a real trade!

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This day would had given me 8pips profit

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For the week this trading brought us for a total pips of

Monday => 58 pips

Tuesday => 41 pips

Wednesday  => 57 pips

Thursday => 25/47pips

Friday => 8 pips

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For the Week that makes a total of 189 pips or 211pips

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Follow your plan....Gosh it's so incredible difficult....

Make a plan...a trading plan, and just follow it! So easy isn't it?

No it's not....not at all! Actually I think it is one of the most, most... difficult things in Forex.... just sticking to your plan and just waiting for that tiny small opportunity.

Gosh, I really know the MarketRhythm, I know when to trade, I know when to close a running trade for protecting myself..... but in most trades, somehow I losing myself, losing the tradingplan and of-course mostly I must take a lost.

But why? I know it and at the same time I am thinking this must be a winner....yes price is going to level x...can't see another way. And so I fell into the disaster!

If the trade is going wrong, then I find myself again and obviously it wasn't a valid trade. Indeed at the time I took the trade it wasn't valid either... it was also against my trading rules. I know it, but I always manage a way it will be valid in the next candle because this and that.... strange behavior isn't it...

Well I don't know how to master this tricky and in my eyes most difficult part. I believe I always fell for the attraction that I can gain quickly....damn....I must overcome this issue. When I can stop trading wild for only just one week......maybe I heal myself. It is just with smoking "you can't stop until you stopped smoking"

For this week I think I just take the chart in front of me and again look again to the marketrhythm and spot the trade startpoints en endpoints.... Look for the potential and then compare it with my current results

Luckily for me I just went in plus for this week with a a small profit of 27.70 pips..... but I was just lucky with my trades for today which overcome my wild trading style of last week!

I would say: "There is work to do....!!"

2020-06-22: GBPUSD

Today I had a good day with a total of 4 trades. 3 winners and 1 loser.

I did not follow my roles for 100% and that means that my winners could be better and possibly I did not had a loser.

Trade 1:
I took the trade at the right Market-rhythm. Price went back between the sma89 and sma200...touched the sma98 and decided to continue the direction.

Problem1: following my rules I took this trade 2 candles to early.... because I was to hesitate

Problem2: after 7 candles I reached the 161,8fib and we had a reverse candle formation. That was the moment I had forced to close the trade.... then this could be a trade with 34pips insteed of 11,5

Trade2:

This was not a valid trade following my Strategy! the price is not jumping of the sma21 at that time...no not at all....

Trade3:

This was a trade following my strategy....but fear let my close the trade to early. Just at the moment I closed the trade the price reversed. So my SL never was in a real danger.......so this was an unnecessary lost of -14pips

Trade4:

This trade was following the Market-rhythm, came of the sma200...was testing the sma21 and went back upwards. Maybe a little to early .... price reached my TP at the ADR and 161,8 fib from last retracement

My TradingPlan

In this blog I try to describe The trades I take

• I try to follow the MarketRhythm in the 15Min chart.
• I only trade after start European Market
• I never trade after 18:00 (GMT+3)
• I look for CandelStoppers like hammer, Bullish/Bearish engulfing, morning/evening star but always interpreted it with the MarketRhythm.
  
• If I start a trade I have to force a close after a Market Reversing candle (I find, that's mostly the difficult part...) but also in relation with the MarketRhythm....
  
• Entry is at least 25% below close of Confirmation Candle (CC)
  
• TP is around 161,8 Fib or just below the daily ADR (depending on the feeling about the MarketRhythm)
• SL is just below CandleStopper